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A large European study now suggests that many diagnoses of cirrhosis and liver cancer come too late, and that diabetes might be an independent risk factor. According to the American Liver Foundation, NAFLD affects around 100 million people in the United States.
It is normal for some fat to be present in the liver. However, when more than 5–10% of the organ’s weight is fat, a state called fatty liver (steatosis) develops. NAFLD is fatty liver that is not related to alcohol consumption. NASH is a more severe form of NAFLD that swells and damages the liver and can lead to cirrhosis, liver failure, and, in some cases, cancer.
Around 1 in 6 of those with NAFLD will develop NASH, which most often develops when a person is 40–60 years old and affects women more than men. It is frequently the case that people with NASH live with the condition for years before they discover that they have it.
For their analysis, Dr. Alazawi and colleagues used electronic health records from 18,782,281 adults in Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the U.K. Within these, they identified 136,703 people whose records said that they had received a diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH. They then matched each with 100 controls whose records contained no such diagnosis. The match was by sex, age, location of practice, and date of visit.
The analysis showed that people with a NAFLD or NASH diagnosis were more likely to have high blood pressure, obesity, and type 2 diabetes than their matched controls. Over a median follow-up period of 3.3 years, the team noted which individuals developed liver cirrhosis and liver cancer.
The analysis revealed that compared with the controls, the risk of later receiving a diagnosis of cirrhosis was 4.73 times higher in those who had NAFLD or NASH. For a diagnosis of liver cancer, the risk was 3.51 times higher. Also, it appears that the “strongest independent predictor of a diagnosis” of cirrhosis or liver cancer was having a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes at baseline.
The analysis also showed that people with NAFLD or NASH appeared to be receiving diagnoses of more severe, life-threatening liver conditions within a few years. The researchers point out that this timescale does not reflect the much longer time that it takes for NAFLD or NASH to progress to advanced liver disease.
This would suggest, in Europe at least, that by the time that some people receive a diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH, their liver could actually be in an advanced stage of disease.